US midterms: over 43 million vote early as Democrats lead polls

With three days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats lead national opinion polls and early voting has surged, Al Jazeera reported. Election Day is on Tuesday.

An Associated Press analysis released on Friday found more than 43 million Americans had voted early, either in person or by returning mail ballots, five days before Election Day. That is nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, against 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an increase of 50 percent. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, above the 2.3 million recorded during early voting in 2022. According to the AP analysis, early voting rose by more than 30 percent compared with 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. Early turnout figures do not show which candidates voters chose or what the final results will be.

RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent. An Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House, against 31 percent who expect Republicans to keep it. For the Senate, 39 percent expect a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, said: "A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats." He added: "However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air." Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake said: "You got a lot of voters who say, 'I'm going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,'"

President Donald Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies, and the White House confirmed both would go ahead on Sunday in Kansas and Iowa. The rallies had been cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead join nearly 20 telephone campaign events. On Friday Trump campaigned in Florida, where Republicans are defending Senate and governor seats, while former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi.

In Iowa, Trump is expected to back Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson. In Kansas he is due to campaign with Senator Roger Marshall, who faces Democrat Adam Hamilton; an Emerson College poll suggests Hamilton leads 49 percent to 45 percent. In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton cancelled an El Paso event to focus on Harris County, and Democrat James Talarico was also concentrating on Houston.