Oil prices edge higher as Iran uncertainty outweighs peace hopes
Brent crude rose on Friday to between $98.29 and $99.90 a barrel, depending on the report, after rebounding from a near two-month low. Investors are weighing the risk of renewed US-Iran fighting against hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
For information only, not investment advice. Prices change quickly: check the time and source of every figure.
- Brent rose to $98.29 (Gulf News) and $99.90 (CNBC) a barrel on Friday.
- Brent had fallen more than 8% on Wednesday to a near two-month low.
- Rapidan Energy Group's Bob McNally sees an 80% chance of US-Iran fighting resuming.
- Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are continuing.
Oil prices held modest gains on Friday after rebounding from a two-month low, as traders balanced the risk of renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran against the prospect of a diplomatic deal.
Gulf News reported Brent crude futures at $98.29 a barrel at 8:41 am Beijing time on 6 November, up $3.67 or 3.88%. West Texas Intermediate rose 55 cents, or 0.61%, to $91.07. CNBC later reported Brent up 1.67% at $99.90 and WTI up 1.43% at $91.69.
Brent rose on Thursday for the first time in four sessions, after plunging more than 8% a day earlier to a near two-month low. It briefly reached $98.44 on Thursday, according to Trading Economics. Crude had pushed toward $118 a barrel in late October.
Shipping remains disrupted. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after trying to use unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also reported three more attacks on oil tankers there on Thursday. UKMTO reported at least five vessel incidents in the Gulf since Sunday, and its data showed attacks continuing at a near-record rate. Insurance costs for shipping in the region have risen sharply since the war began on 28 February 2026.
Rapidan Energy Group President Bob McNally said he sees an 80% probability that fighting between the US and Iran resumes, and forecast that both oil benchmarks could climb above $100 a barrel. Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy Chaar and head of investment strategy Luca Bindelli share his view.
McNally said: "President Donald Trump is determined, as a legacy item, almost at all costs, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, having them give up their nuclear capabilities." He added: "The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it. And as long as that core difference in that deal space is absent, the escalation dynamic remains in place."
Eurasia Group cut its odds of renewed US strikes to 60% from 65%, and its odds of a deal to 10% from 20%. It said escalation could push Brent to between $110 and $125 a barrel. Reuters, cited by CNBC, reported that Iran sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, according to a senior Iranian official.
A US inventory report showed crude, gasoline and distillate stocks fell as demand hit a one-year high. Gulf News noted that the recovery in Middle East crude exports has not been matched by refined fuel supplies.
Background
khabr.pk reported on 26 October that Brent traded around $114 to $115 a barrel as attacks on Saudi Arabia kept supply concerns in focus. On 27 October it reported Brent fell more than 6% to about $110 as regional mediators headed to Tehran.
Why it matters
Global oil prices feed into the price of fuel and the import bill Pakistan pays. On 5 November petrol was Rs352.59 a litre and high-speed diesel Rs382.25 a litre, according to figures khabr.pk has recorded. Households, transporters and businesses that depend on fuel are therefore exposed to moves in crude prices. The interbank dollar closed at Rs276.67 on 5 November.
