Copernicus says 2026 most likely second-warmest year on record
The EU's Copernicus climate service says 2026 is most likely the second-warmest year on record, with about an 80% probability. October was the warmest October ever recorded globally.
- Copernicus puts the chance of 2026 ranking second-warmest at about 80%, and of tying or beating 2024 at 20%.
- October 2026 was the warmest October on record, at 1.75C above pre-industrial levels.
- An intensifying El Nino is adding heat, Copernicus said.
The EU's Copernicus climate service said in its latest assessment, released on Friday and based on data through October, that 2026 will most likely rank as the second-warmest year on record. It put the probability at about 80%.
Copernicus gave a 20% chance that 2026 will equal or surpass 2024, the warmest year recorded. It also said 2026 is virtually certain to be the second calendar year to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, after 2024. The four-year average for 2023-2026 is expected to top 1.5C.
October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35C, or 1.75C above the estimated pre-industrial average. It was the third consecutive month with global temperatures above 1.5C.
Average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95C in October, the highest for that month. Copernicus said El Nino conditions kept intensifying in the tropical Pacific and that the pattern set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said: "October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures." She also said: "An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities."
Europe had its second-warmest October on record, with an average land temperature of 11.51C, which is 1.49C above the 1991-2020 average. Dry conditions persisted across parts of western Iberia, France, central and eastern Europe, the Balkans and peninsular Italy, and river flows on the Rhine, Danube and Vistula remained exceptionally low.
Arctic sea ice extent was about 9% below average in October, the 13th lowest in the 48-year satellite record. Antarctic sea ice was also about 9% below average, the second-lowest October level behind 2023, and Black Sea ice hit a record October low.
Forecasters say El Nino could make 2027 the hottest year on record. It is expected to peak later this year and may become the strongest ever observed. Nations meet on Monday for the two-week UN COP31 climate summit in Turkey, after the UN said in September that the 1.5C target would be missed within years.
Background
khabr.pk reported on 27 October that carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached record concentrations in 2025, according to the World Meteorological Organization, ahead of the COP31 summit in Antalya, Turkey.
Why it matters for Pakistan
Pakistan's desk selected this story because record heat and climate shifts raise risks of heatwaves, floods and glacier melt that affect the country. Farmers, households and communities in vulnerable areas are exposed to such extremes. The COP31 talks that open on Monday will be watched for how countries respond to the warming reported by Copernicus.
