US midterms two days away as Democrats lead national polls

The United States holds its midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters will choose members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and governors in 36 of the 50 states. Early voting has been under way for weeks.

Democrats remain ahead of Republicans in national polls. The latest RealClearPolling average puts them at 51.5 percent against 43.1 percent. A THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 showed 54 percent to 41 percent, and an Emerson College poll from October 24 to 26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead. Al Jazeera reported that several close Senate races may decide which party controls Congress.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. In the House, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats also need a net gain of four seats there. The Independent listed ten Senate races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, that could decide the outcome.

The cost of living is a central campaign issue, and Al Jazeera said it has been worsened by the US-Israel war on Iran. Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, said: "Polling shows an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats. The president is very unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years." A September Reuters/Ipsos poll put approval of President Donald Trump at 32 percent, an all-time low.

Democratic strategist and pollster Celinda Lake said: "The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived."

Both sides are making final pushes. Trump, who first cancelled and then reinstated the plans on Friday, will campaign in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa he will appear with a Republican US representative, Ashley, who faces Democrat Josh Turek in the Senate race. Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic candidate who has faced an increase in Islamophobic attacks, will hold events in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan, as he tries to defeat Republican Mike Rogers.

In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall 52 percent to 43 percent, while an Emerson survey showed 50 to 47. Republican strategist Doug Heye questioned the nine-point lead, recalling that an Iowa poll before the 2024 election showed Kamala Harris ahead, yet Trump won the state by about 13 points. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Spending is at a record level. AdImpact said $11.6 billion had been spent on political advertising for the 2025-26 cycle as of October 30. If turnout matches 2022, more than 100 million people are likely to vote. If Democrats win the House, Hakeem Jeffries of New York is likely to become speaker.