Experts warn record remittances may hide a coming fall in Gulf jobs
Economists at a Lahore conference warned that AI and changing Gulf labour policies could affect up to seven in 10 jobs traditionally held by migrants. They said record remittance inflows may be hiding a future decline in overseas employment.
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- Economists said AI and Gulf labour policy changes could affect up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally held by migrant workers.
- Dr Nasir Iqbal of PIDE said current remittance inflows may hide a future decline in overseas jobs.
- The two-day conference was held at the Lahore School of Economics.
Economists and migration specialists have warned that artificial intelligence and changing labour policies in Gulf states could affect up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally held by migrant workers. They spoke at an international conference in Lahore, and said a possible decline in inflows along the Gulf corridor needs urgent attention.
The two-day Fourth International Conference, titled Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia, was organised by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD) at the Lahore School of Economics. Business Recorder reported that it closed on Wednesday. Scholars, researchers and policy specialists attended from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.
Dr Nasir Iqbal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) said 2026 has reshaped the migration landscape because of the ongoing conflict and the rise of AI. He said Gulf states will place greater emphasis on selecting workers by skills, occupations and migration pathways. He added that sending countries are becoming active partners in screening and preparing workers.
Iqbal said current remittance inflows may hide a future decline in overseas employment opportunities.
Francoise De Bel-Air said opportunities are growing for skilled professionals in North America, Europe and the Gulf, while routes for low- and semi-skilled workers face increasing restrictions. Froilan Malit said the Asia-Gulf corridor remains a resilient labour migration system, and that skill recognition systems between regions need further study.
Marco Mogiani said European Union policies, including stricter border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures, have influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh. Dr Fareeha Zafar named political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment and limited access to quality education as the main drivers of irregular migration from Asia, and said women face greater vulnerabilities, including the risk of trafficking, on irregular transit routes.
Dr Richa Shivakoti said remittances contribute about 33% of Nepal's GDP, and Dr Maruja MB Asis said limited decent jobs at home and steady overseas demand drive migration from the Philippines. Speakers said migration pressures in Pakistan and Nepal are likely to stay high because of demographic shifts and limited domestic opportunities.
Background
khabr.pk reported on 5 November that Emirates Group's first-half after-tax profit fell 66% to AED 3.6 billion amid the Gulf conflict and fuel costs, with passenger numbers down 22%.
Why it matters
Millions of Pakistani workers in the Gulf send remittances that support many households and the national economy. Speakers said a possible fall in inflows along the Gulf corridor needs urgent attention. The warning that routes for low- and semi-skilled workers face growing restrictions bears on people seeking work abroad, since migration pressure in Pakistan is expected to stay high.
