Finance Ministry expects October inflation of 9.5% to 10.5%

The Finance Ministry has released its monthly Economic Update and Outlook report, which projects inflation in October 2026 between 9.5 and 10.5 percent. The report notes that inflation declined in September.

The ministry said the path of prices in the coming months depends largely on global energy prices and the availability of food in domestic markets.

The report expects the economy to continue recovering during fiscal year 2026-27. It points to foreign exchange reserves, improved agricultural output and increased economic activity as supports for that recovery.

On agriculture, the report expects better crop yields to raise rural incomes and business activity. Higher farm output would also benefit the food processing industry and farm-linked sectors.

The outlook anticipates more construction activity and higher production in several large industries. It adds that the improvement in industrial output is uneven, with performance varying across sectors. Rising machinery imports are expected to strengthen productive capacity.

The report expects workers' remittances and services exports to grow this fiscal year. Higher remittances would add to national income and strengthen foreign exchange reserves, which are already supporting the economy.

On policy, the government is focused on raising tax collection, controlling expenditure and carrying out reforms. The report expects improvements in the tax system, energy savings and reforms of state-owned enterprises to support sustainable growth.

The report describes the budget surplus as a positive development for economic stability. It also stresses that measures for vulnerable and low-income groups should continue, and that fiscal discipline and structural reforms remain important for sustaining the recovery.